How Shelf Price gets its prices

Shelf Price is a guessing game, so the numbers behind it need to be fair. This page explains what an "average price" means here, where each number comes from, and where it can be wrong.

What "average price" means

Every item has one reference price: a typical national shelf price for a common version of that item and size. It is not the price at one particular store, it is not a sale price, and it is not the cheapest or the most expensive version. When you guess, you are guessing that typical price.

U.S. figures backed by government data

For 13 U.S. staples the reference price comes from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Average Price Data, the September 2026 readings. The BLS collects prices in stores as part of the Consumer Price Index and publishes monthly national averages for a set of food and household items. Those items are: large eggs, whole milk, white sandwich bread, shredded cheddar, bananas, white potatoes, ground beef, boneless chicken breast, bacon, ground coffee, long-grain white rice, all-purpose flour and granulated sugar. On the game's reveal screen, these items are labeled with their source. You can read more at the BLS Consumer Price Index page.

The BLS describes a specific item definition for each average, which may differ slightly from the size shown in the game, so treat the result as the national average for that type of product, not an exact match to every package.

Editorial estimates

The remaining items are editorial estimates. They are our best judgment of a typical U.S. shelf price for a common version of the item, rounded to a clean figure. They are not measured and can be several percent off, especially for items whose prices vary widely between brands or stores. The reveal screen labels these as "Estimated national average".

Other countries

Prices for Canada, the United Kingdom, the Eurozone, Australia, Mexico, India and Japan are not surveyed prices. Each starts from the U.S. figure and is scaled with a factor that reflects typical price levels and exchange rates, then rounded to a sensible step for that currency. Sizes switch to metric where that is how the item is normally sold. Treat these as close, not exact.

How scoring works

Scores are based on percentage error, so a $1 miss on a $2 item counts much more than a $1 miss on a $20 item. You earn 100 points for a guess within 5 percent of the reference price, 75 within 10 percent, 50 within 20 percent, 30 within 30 percent, 15 within 40 percent, and 0 beyond that. A daily run is seven items, worth up to 700 points.

Keeping it up to date

Prices change, so we review the reference prices and update them when new data is published. This site was last built on October 26, 2026. If you spot a price that looks wrong, please tell us at hello@shelfpricegame.com and we will take a look.